The first half of 2026 has been defined by a widening gap between what the M&A market is prepared to do and what is actually converting. The structural case for a multi-year upcycle remains intact: advisory backlogs have rebuilt after the lean years of 2023 and 2024, deal pipelines have recovered, and sponsors are under pressure to transact. The near-term backdrop, however, has stayed cautious, with clients and management teams approaching transactions carefully as diligence deepens and structures grow more complex. The result is a market that feels busy without always closing: pipelines are fuller, but decisions are taking longer to reach. The headline numbers carry both halves of that story: deal value across EMEA more than doubled year on year to its highest first half in nineteen years, while the number of deals fell and the deals that happened took longer to close. Readings differ by provider, and Europe-only trackers put the recovery in value more modestly, but the shape is the same in each: the half was carried by a small number of very large transactions rather than a broad return of activity.
That combination is shaping who gets hired and how.
Drawing on more than 2,800 conversations across our M&A advisory coverage in the first half of 2026, alongside more than 180 client meetings, three patterns stood out, and they track the themes the market itself is talking about. Each begins as a shift in the market and becomes a shift in talent.
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